The first-quarter setup continues to reward selectivity over broad risk-taking. Cross-asset signals suggest a late-cycle environment with uneven participation.
Growth
Headline growth remains positive, but dispersion across sectors and regions is wide. This supports active security selection and measured cyclical exposure.
Inflation
Inflation continues to moderate in headline terms, yet services pressure remains sticky. Portfolio construction should avoid assuming a one-way disinflation path.
Liquidity and Policy
Liquidity conditions are supportive but less forgiving than prior cycles. Balance sheet quality and refinancing needs remain central to risk assessment.
Positioning
Our current bias favors quality income, selective equity exposure, and defensive hedging where volatility pricing is attractive.